Dion's Long-Term Strategy.

While I've already given my initial reaction to the Dion-May deal on Red Tory's blog, as well as Cerebrus and Dark Blue Tory's, my thinking on the deal has grown over time.

First of all, I am surprised by how divided over the deal Liberal bloggers appear to be (with Cerebrus being vehemently oppossed to it), and that has forced me to reconsider my initial reaction to the deal, as well as Dion's likely reasoning for entering into it.

I still maintain that it may hinder the GPC by sending 'mixed messages' of sorts to their supporters (i.e. when one federal leader essentially endorses another federal leader becoming Prime Minister of Canada in the next federal election, it begs the question of 'who should I vote for?'), though it may also add some degree of greater legitimacy to the GPC through sheer association to 'Canada's natural governing party'.

However, I think that what we are viewing here could, in time, metastasize into something far larger than a strategic agreement for one lone election between two of Canada's political parties. I think that the 'end goal' is the uniting of the left.

Now, the GPC (and its leader) do have some policy stands that are out of synch with that of the left, but these could likely be smoothed over given the seemingly widespread agreement on the environment issue between the Liberals, Green, and NDP (and Bloc, though I see no potential for them to be involved in any 'unite the left' movement due to the LPC holding diametrically opposing views to the Bloc as it pertains to Quebec's role, and future existence).

Now, the NDP are strongly critical of the deal, and Jack Layton did reportedly turn down May's desire for a three-way agreement. However, that may simply indicate that partisanship means more to the NDP than broader ideological success through being part of the governing co-alition or party.

Certainly, the short-term impact of this move is probably negative for all involved. Conservatives mock it, while Liberals and Greens alike are at least somewhat divided over it. However, it would be foolhardy for the Conservatives, or the NDP, to become complacent, indifferent, and/or overly self-assured due to this short-term reaction.

Yes, there is outrage amongst many Central Nova Liberals at this time, but that will largely dissipate in time if Dion, and May, are given sufficient time to refocus their attentions to the percieved common enemy of the Conservatives, especially Stephen Harper and Peter MacKay.

To use a hockey analogy, Dion and May have just begun to thread the needle on one of the infamous high-risk, low-percentage, one-timer plays in hockey. These plays are typically intercepted by a skillful defensemen, or backchecking forward... but when the pass actually gets to the stick of the desired shooter, it almost always results in a goal.

In this scenario, Harper is the defencemen, the desired shooter is the envisioned united left, and the goaltender is Canadian Conservatives in general. If Harper doesn't intercept the pass while he has the chance... if he doesn't squash Dion's plans before they have a decent chance of reaching fruition... he could one day find himself facing an united left, and having 'a goal' scored on him.

Canada, whether those of us on the right like to admit or not, is a center-left country at this time. If a center-right co-alition (i.e. the Conservatives, from their parents of the Alliance and the PCs) faces a center-left co-alition (i.e. a powerful party or co-alition of sorts with the parents being the Liberals and the Greens, possibly birthed by a midwife of the NDP if the NDP decides to play along at a later point), then the center-left co-alition will almost certainly win, barring a strong third party (one alternative to the NDP being the midwife of this new co-alition is that the NDP may be crushed by it)

I would encourage Harper to not give Dion and May the chance to realize their dream here, and to call an election soon... while outrage from more traditionalist Liberals is still high, and mocking of the move is still fashionable.

Otherwise, Dion may surprise people in time, as I sense an end goal here that ought to concern our current Prime Minister.

The NDP, meanwhile, have the greatest dilemma on their hands, and it'll be interesting to see how they handle it.